In a new study on 2WAY’s video, political commentator Mark Halperin offered a striking analysis of Kamala Harris’s prospects in the 2024 election. Halperin says Democratic and Republican solutions are telling him that Kamala is “unlikely to get Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona”.
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If Kamala ca n’t win any of these three, her path to 270 Electoral College votes is extremely narrow. She would need to take off a blow in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to secure success, and that’s going become difficult for her to do. According to Halperin, the situation is “basically similar to Joe Biden’s on the day of the conversation.”
Does that mean she wo n’t or ca n’t win Georgia, North Carolina, or Arizona? No. Halperin emphasized the need to see Harris’s ranking in those states, even though there’s now little indication she’s on track to get them. Trump is favored to win all of those state, according to latest polls that have been conducted there.
So we’re back to the Great Lakes states—the so-called “blue wall”.
” Does she get the three Great Lakes declares”? Halperin asked. ” The emphasis has been on Pennsylvania”. He criticized the general consensus that” the winner of Pennsylvania will win this election,” but warned against the focus on just one state by mentioning that” she may win Pennsylvania and win the election, but she may win Pennsylvania and lose the election because she does n’t win Wisconsin.” He mentioned his sources, two Democrats and one Democrat with extensive knowledge of the state, who said they would be” somewhere between stunned and shocked if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin to explain how important it has become.
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While some critics and media stores have been saying for decades that winning Pennsylvania would almost certainly clinch the presidency, Halperin reaffirmed a different perspective:” Reorient yourself away from media frame that says it’s all about Pennsylvania.” For Harris, defeat in Pennsylvania may not be much. If she cannot safe Wisconsin, her journey to the White House could crumble. Halperin’s noted tips to citizens and spectators alike is apparent:” Watch Wisconsin”.
” My reporting is that she’s in trouble in Wisconsin”, says @Mark Halperin of Kamala Harris. ” This is based on three options: two Republicans and one Democrat, both of whom are well-versed in the position, and who both told me today that they would be somewhere between astonished and… photograph. twitter.com/41alRNqW8L— 2WAY ( @2waytvapp ) November 2, 2024
Given that the poll statistics now show Wisconsin more orange than Pennsylvania, some may wonder why.
3 times until Election Day! Here’s how the 2024 presidential contest compares to the same place in the 2020 and 2016 primaries, according to the RCP surveys statistics. photograph. twitter.com/CSpiCFx6E4— Matt Margolis ( @mattmargolis ) November 2, 2024
However, elections are not always accurate. Wisconsin is extremely bad for polling further to the departed than the state really votes, according to Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Strategies:
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Last WI Surveys 2020
Biden + 2 by AtlasIntel
Susquehanna Biden + 3
Civiqs Biden + 4
Research Co Biden + 8
Emerson Biden + 8
Change Research Biden + 8
CNN/SSRS Biden + 8
SurveyMonkey Biden + 10
Swayabe Biden + 10
Ipsos Biden + 10
NYT/Siena Biden + 11
R&, W Biden + 12
Morning Consult Biden + 13— Patrick Ruffini ( @PatrickRuffini ) November 2, 2024
Therefore, it makes sense that officials with access to potentially more trustworthy private voting as well as insight from the field may indicate that Kamala is performing significantly worse in Wisconsin than polls suggest.
