Although the ratio is small, a fresh AtlasIntel poll found that former president Donald Trump is now in the lead over vice president Kamala Harris in each of the seven swing state. Trump is favored to succeed in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The new ballot comes as Ann Selzer polls reveal Kamala Harris is back in Iowa, a effectively liberal district that Donald Trump won both in 2016 and 2020.
According to the AtlasIntel survey, Trump leads Harris by 45 % and Trump by 52 % in Arizona.
In Nevada, Trump has a 51.2 per share to 46 per cent advantage over Harris.
In North Carolina, Trump holds a 50.5 per share to 47.1 per cent result.
In Georgia, Trump is leading 50.1 per share to Harris ‘ 47.6 per cent.
In Michigan, it’s 49.7 per share for Trump and 48.2 per share for Harris.
In Pennsylvania, the forecast is 49.6 per share for Trump and 47.8 per cent for Harris.
Wisconsin is the closest– 49.7 per share for Trump and 48.6 per cent for Harris.
Aftermath of the Iowa impact surveys
Kamala Harris is three points ahead in Iowa primarily due to the people voters, according to a poll conducted by the Des Moines Register Iowa. ” It’s difficult for anybody to say they saw this coming”, Selzer told the paper. ” She ( Harris ) has clearly leaped into a leading position”. Selzer and the Register surveyed 808 good Iowa citizens from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31. It has a plus or minus 3.4 % margin of error. A significant gender divide is what led Harris to take the lead in the poll. She leads by 20 points among women, 56 % to 36 %. Trump has a lead among men, but it’s relatively smaller, 52 % to 38 %. It’s a structure that’s repeated itself to varying lengths nationwide, but somewhat, a six-week abortion restrictions went into effect in Iowa this summer.
According to a report from Daily Beast, betting markets were tipped in favor of Kamala Harris following the impact surveys. Trump had a 55 % chance of winning in Kalshi’s betting market on Saturday, but that number dropped to 50 % on Sunday morning.
On Polymark, Trump was at 63 per cent on Saturday but on Sunday morning, he tumbled over to 56 per share. After the Iowa vote, PredictIt gave Harris some breathing space.
