Before I share this evening’s probably cinema figures, I want you to read it 100 times on the chalkboard:” I will not get cocky”. Also please note that text formatting for our THM mobile app and notifications is the only reason I did n’t put “potentially” in italics, boldface, and all caps. Because everything you’re about to learn is only possible predictors of a Donald Trump victory in Pennsylvania.
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With the common cautions out of the way, this glance at what’s going on in the Keystone State.
The GOP benefits greatly from first participation:
Absent “turnout” is actually with about 84 % of requested votes returned by both parties.
You might wonder why 32.8 % GOP to the Dem’s 55.7 % is such good news. It’s all about the power and who typically votes first.
Look at this:
In Pennsylvania, Scott Presler has spearheaded a massive GOP voter registration pull that far outnumbers the Dems. Additionally, those who are brand-new Republicans are more likely to vote first. Standard Republicans typically favor turning out on election time.  ,
What’s more exciting is where those 721, 276 missing Democrat first citizens went — and who they are.
According to a personal letter to the Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team from the RNC’s main data analyst obtained by Eric Daugherty, Pennsylvania’s “urban participation is down 381K votes, female attendance is down 450K votes”.
A Democrat cannot win without those women and minority voters, and 721, 276 of them, for whatever reason, have n’t even begun to cast an early ballot for Harris as they did for Biden in 2020.
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In addition, the same letter demonstrates that things are similar in different tossup states:
Arizona:
- Urban participation is down -385, 285 vote compared to this point in 2020
- Adult participation is down -170, 011 vote compared to this point in 2020
- Rural participation is UP + 14, 124 vote compared to this point in 2020
Georgia:
- Urban participation is down -153, 846 vote compared to this place in 2020
- Sexual participation is down -46, 732 vote compared to this point in 2020
- Rural attendance is UP + 171, 837 vote compared to this point in 2020
Michigan:
- Urban participation is down -321, 523 vote compared to this place in 2020
- Sexual participation is down -204, 856 vote compared to this point in 2020
- Rural participation is UP + 55, 951 vote compared to this place in 2020
North Carolina:
- Urban attendance is down -175, 470 vote compared to this point in 2020
- Female participation is over -154, 459 votes compared to this stage in 2020
- Rural attendance is UP + 26, 911 vote compared to this point in 2020
Nevada:
- Urban participation is over -191, 199 votes compared to this stage in 2020
- Adult participation is down -126, 112 seats compared to this point in 2020
Wisconsin:
- Urban participation is down -100, 733 vote compared to this place in 2020
- Adult participation is down -238, 452 vote compared to this point in 2020
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The positive news is that Democrats are having issues with two of their most important constituents in early election, where they did well in 2020. The Dem machine does a fantastic job of turnout when it needs it and an even better job ( mostly in Philly ) of “finding” just enough ballots for the big win.
That’s why Harris is working so hard to get the abortion girls out tomorrow to vote, and why the GOP also needs every one vote it does push, pull, or influence to go to the polls.
Recommended:  , Wargaming the Electoral College: ‘ I Gotta Be Sedated ‘ Edition
