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    Saturday, November 30

    Michigan Election Preview: Pay No Attention to the Polls Behind the Curtain

    Updated: US News No Comments
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    a a bff afe jpg

    Way back in olden times — before 2016 — historical trends were of some help when trying to figure out where a presidential election was heading. Head-to-head polling has always been iffy, but things like favorability ratings and the national mood about the economy could make the pundits’ election crystal balls a little clearer. 

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    Then this dude named Donald Trump ran for president and blew “business as usual” right out of the water. 

    The 2024 presidential election has been filled with enough weirdness to make any ten elections unprecedented. I find discussions about historical trends almost meaningless because there are so many “X” factors in this cycle. It’s nigh on impossible to look to 2020 for clues, as everything in and out of politics was anomalous that year.

    Michigan could be the wildest of the wildcard battleground states on Tuesday. Its large Muslim population has been the subject of a lot of election conversations during the Israel-Hamas war. Kamala Harris has tried to play both sides of that issue since becoming the Democratic anointee, but she leaned heavily toward the “Free Palestine” pro-Gaza crowd prior to that. 

    Here’s what things look like in Michigan as we head into THE DAY. 

    Presidential Race

    I’ll get to those Senate numbers in a bit.

    When Trump won in Michigan in 2016, it was the first time a Republican presidential candidate prevailed there since Papa Bush carried it way back when MTV played music videos. On the morning of Nov. 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton and the people at the Democratic National Committee had no reason to believe they had any worries there. 

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    Here is a snapshot that will tell you everything you need to know about this year: 

    A five-point lead three days out is the political equivalent of a football team being up by 35 points heading into the fourth quarter. The lead isn’t theoretically insurmountable, but fans are heading for the exits early. 

    These Michigan numbers get to the crux of the polling discussion here in 2024. Trump’s support was greatly underestimated and underrepresented in the polls in 2016 and even in 2020. I could fill another column with all of the theories as to why that happened. Suffice it to say that it is one of the few things that people on both sides of the aisle agree on right now. 

    If that holds true again this year, Michigan could be called for Trump right about the time that Californians are wrapping up happy hour. 

    There are some people out there, however, who believe that the professional pollsters don’t want to keep being wrong about this and may have tightened things up. I personally think that support for Trump is too difficult to pinpoint and quantify for that to have happened to any great degree. 

    I’ve spent almost six out of the last 14 months in Michigan visiting family and have met some unlikely Trump supporters — people who are most definitely not showing up in polls. I’m usually in Ann Arbor, which is the Soviet Union with gastropubs. They’re all drunk on the Harris Kool-Aid there, having completely forgotten that they couldn’t stand her in 2019.

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    Even if the pollsters have cleaned up their acts, these numbers are so tight that it only takes a few precincts here and there to tip the election. 

    Senate Race

    The race for the Senate in Michigan is between Republican Mike Rogers, a former member of Congress, and Democrat Elissa Slotkin, a current member. I’ve just returned from six weeks in Michigan and saw more swing state advertising than I ever care to see again. (I also sat one table away from Slotkin in a restaurant one night and regret not getting a picture with her for future trolling purposes.)

    Each campaign has focused on a mostly one-note attack on the other. 

    Slotkin and the Dems are hitting Rogers for being a staunch pro-lifer. It’s the “back alley” boilerplate stuff we’ve come to expect from the radical abortion party that the Democrats are now. 

    The Rogers camp is hitting Slotkin for supporting EV mandates, which is an issue that plays big in Michigan, obviously. 

    Like the woman at the top of her ticket, Slotkin is trying to run away from her past. In her campaign ads that don’t deal with abortion, Slotkin almost comes off as a moderate Republican. I got that impression when I first saw them in September, and the Michiganders I talked to agreed with me. 

    That issue is almost certainly the reason that this race is neck-and-neck. Polling from the final weekend ranges from one that has Slotkin up by eight, to the deadlocked Trafalgar poll I posted earlier in the column. 

    Yeah, I’m getting whiplash too.

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    Michigan is going to be the belle of the swing state ball not named Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. Make sure to come hang out with me, VodkaPundit, and the rest of our merry band of political junkies for our rollicking election night liveblog. It begins at 7 PM EST and goes until we’re all getting fluids replenished via IV. 

    There has never been a better time to become a VIP subscriber. When you sign up and use the promo code FIGHT, you’ll get a huge 60% discount. For a little over five bucks a month, you can experience our new VIP Platinum tier. It’s the ultimate Townhall Media backstage pass. If you’re already in the VIP family, you rock, and we invited you to upgrade to platinum here. 

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