I do n’t have to tell you not to get cocky and to make sure every Trump-loving friend, family member, neighbor, and random acquaintance of yours gets out there and votes. However, there is a chance that people pollsters who have been forceful that this race will be a nail-biter have been missing something significant despite the claims being made that this election will be near.
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Veteran GOP strategist Alex Castellanos made the suggestion on Monday that experts may be overlooking a crucial factor in their evaluations.
A former GOP strategist claims that experts have been getting it “wrong” in the last days of the 2024 presidential election by ignoring a “massive change” in voting registration since the last election, which could give the balances to former president Donald Trump on Tuesday.
Alex Castellanos, who has worked on strategies for Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, told Fox News ‘” Special Report” that the elections — which show a razor-thin ratio between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — are disregarding a “wavelet out that of Republican enthusiasm”.
” What I believe they are missing is a significant change in voter registration under the guise of this.” Thirty-one says have voter registration by group. The long-time planner said later on Sunday that in 30 of them, there has been a trend toward Republicans in the last four years.
” I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a storm, but I think there’s a wave out that of Republican joy and register. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or fresh, what am I going to do”?
No new information has been reported about a Democratic registration increase, and there is proof that polls are failing to account for these enrollment shifts. For instance, Ann Selzer’s most recent Des Moines Register poll did n’t appear to take into account Republican registration gains statewide. Meanwhile, it seems like every poll we’ve seen lately ( or most, anyway ) have been showing nearly identical” coin flip” results.
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Castellanos contends that the lack of variability in poll results as the election draws closer to hand is due to pollsters ‘ loss to account for the rise in GOP registrations.
” I believe the experts are doing this incorrectly. We’re all missing anything, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There is n’t even statistical variation”, Castellanos said. ” It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a hockey game where every game’s a bounce ball”.
Six of the seven battleground state are so close to the margin of error, according to recent voting, with Arizona the only exception showing a clear head, with Trump leading by four points.
According to the final batch of swing state polling from the New York Times and Siena College, Trump edged out Harris by 49 % to 47 % in the Grand Canyon State.
Harris eked out narrow leads within the margin of error among likely voters in Nevada ( 49 % to 46 % ), North Carolina ( 48 % to 46 % ), Wisconsin ( 49 % to 47 % ) and Georgia ( 48 % to 47 % ).
In recent days, another well-known experts, including polling data guru Nate Silver, have begun to raise concerns about polls, alleging that some pollsters may be “herding” results by making decisions that aim to avoid being an exception.
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So, if experts are n’t accounting for Republican floods in their studies and designs, then there’s a strong case to be made that Trump citizens are being undercounted. In crucial battleground states, that might be worth at least a one-point change in his favor, and if so, we might be able to predict the outcome of this vote sooner than expected.
