Early Voting Results: 80 Million Votes Already Cast. What Do They Tell Us?

Almost 80 million beginning seats have now been cast in the 2024 presidential election. And it’s extremely close: Registered Democrats comprised 41 % of mail-in ( or in-person early voting ), 39 % were registered Republicans, and 20 % were independent.

That’s a very slim Democratic edge, and it comes with an important caveat: We do n’t know whether these Republicans or Democrats voted straight ticket. Trump might really have a slight advantage in the race right then if he enjoys greater popularity among Republicans than Kamala Harris does among Democrats. And without a huge pre-Election Day benefits, the Democrats are bread.

( However, if you still believe in the reliability of media polls, Republicans are more likely to support Harris than the other way around. ) Never a promising sign at all if you accept them.

But in sheer numbers, 48 % of American adults now identify as Republican ( or GOP-leaning ), and just 45 % for Democrats. In fact, Political group recognition is now at an all-time small. There’s a smaller world of Democrats.

That’s critical because Democrats ‘ voting patterns differ from Republicans: In 2020, 58 % of Biden supporters voted via mail-in ballots, compared to just 32 % of Republicans. ( That year, Trump captured 46.8 % of the vote, 4.5 % behind Biden — much closer than the 26-point mail-in gap. )

What does this inevitably mean?

1. If voting designs stay regular, it’s extremely unlikely that the Democrats will have enough of a mail-in “buffer” to mitigate the GOP’s day-of benefits. They needed a bigger lead, and they simply did n’t get it.
2. Unless, of course, Republicans have n’t really added enough fresh citizens, and are basically shifting day-of citizens to the early-voting group. In that case, the strengthening of the earlier votes may be deceiving. ( And heartbreaking for conservatives. )

Not to get all Rumsfeldian, but among the biggest, most unexpected” known unknowns” are whether or not the 2020 COVID-era election designs were an unusual one-off or a forerunner of a larger socio-political shift. Voter turnout increased by 7 % in 2020, which almost certainly hurts Trump. &nbsp,

But will these 7 % of novel citizens continue to vote in 2024?

Four years ago, COVID limits considerably altered the political math, making it much easier for Trump-haters ( who were struggling through the pandemic and clamoring for change ) to voice their displeasure. Also, Biden was probably the most prominent Democrat in the country never named Hillary or Barack: He had a built-in, 40-plus time reservoir of help from the black community ( and other progressive groups ), which viewed him as an expansion of the Obama administration.

Today, Kamala Harris is perceived as an extension of the Biden administration — not the Obama administration. That wo n’t garner the same level of loyalty or support.

The turnout rate for 2024 will be significantly lower than it was for 2020. Sixty-four percent of Americans voted in 2020, but only 54 % have ( or are planning to ) vote in 2024. If the 10 % drop hurts Harris more than Trump in a close election, which is a reasonable assumption, Team MAGA could be in a comfortable lead.

So what’s the bottom line?

There is ample evidence to support the claim that Trump is far more successful than the most recent polls suggest. According to what we know, Trump’s chances of winning seem more likely than not. But ultimately, it’ll come down to each team’s ground game — and which socio-political model 2024 follows.

ONE MORE THING: &nbsp,

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