A mysterious trader known as the” French Trump Whale” has made headlines by wagering an astonishing$ 40 million on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election in a recent development that has caught the attention of the political betting industry. In an exclusive meeting, Stephan Tompson, the leader of Visegrád 24, tracked down the trader, who identified himself as Theo, to reveal his desires and insight behind this huge gamble.
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Theo stated unambiguously,” I’m never supporting Trump. I’m just making the observation that Trump has a 90 % chance of winning the popular vote and a 65 % chance of winning. His contention is fueled by his perception that forecast betting markets are significantly different from traditional polls, which he believes frequently undervalue Trump’s political support.
He described the mechanics of these forecast markets and said that one must consider what the people’s intentions are before casting their ballots. The various wagers are made by real people for real cash about who they think will emerge as the winner. This distinction is crucial because it demonstrates how financial stakes can provide more reliable information on potential election outcomes than public opinion polls, which, to be honest, have n’t been particularly reliable in recent cycles.
Delving deeper into his argument, Theo reflected on the public’s treatment of Trump’s help, claiming that they are repeating the errors made in 2016 and 2020.  ,
” In August, I started to realize that internet retailers are making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020: underestimating the Trump vote”, Theo said. ” Why? Because repeatedly, it’s underestimating the quiet Trump voting effect”.
I “deep dived” into the elections, where I realized that Harris is invariably favored in the majority of the surveys. I even read a bit about, what we call the Neighbourhood effect”.
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Theo pointed to a new New York Times survey that he described as a” clear outlier,” specifically citing the North Carolina results showing Kamala up two items as an obvious oddity, when Thompson asked him to show him the math supporting his assertion that the elections are distorted. He carefully calculated the percentages and examined the crosstabs of the poll, concluding that the poll results were “off by 9.3 %” to Kamala’s advantage.
Theo’s study extends beyond North Carolina. He expressed trust in the existence of similar patterns in different swing states, such as Wisconsin and Michigan. ” I tell you that Trump may exceed the elections, particularly these elections by 4 to 5 %”, he asserted.
He also urged others to do their personal analyses to find what he thought were widespread biases in polling data.
Ironically, Theo distinguished himself from the notion of a bookie. ” I am a seller because I’m based on rationals. I’m based on insights”, he clarified, asserting that his actions are motivated by information rather than social affiliation. ” That’s why I bet on both, and that’s why I think you will get both”, he concluded, reinforcing his scientific method to predicting democratic outcomes.
” I tell you that Trump may exceed the elections, especially these elections by 4 to 5 % minimum”.
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When asked about the possibility of a Trump damage, Theo was logical. ” If I’m wrong, I would accept that I was wrong in my analysis, but I really doubt about ]sic ] that”. We may get his trust in Trump’s chances significantly based on the data analysis. When you bet$ 40 million on an election, it does n’t matter how rich you are, that’s a lot of money that would n’t risk losing unless you were extremely confident.
THE NYT/SIENA POLL SKEWS IN FAVOUR OF KAMALA HARRIS
The enigmatic French trader placed a$ 40 million bet on a Trump victory after finding out why he was so confident in it.
He demonstrated the arithmetic that demonstrates how pollsters manipulate data to deceive the public. photograph. twitter.com/XXBzEA595e
— Visegrád 24 ( @visegrad24 ) November 5, 2024
