Follow Steve Postal: @ HebraicMosaic
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What might the Middle East be affected by a fresh Trump management? Anticipate the following:
Increased Concern for Iran and its Intermediaries
Brian Hook, Trump’s former special envoy to Iran who is believed to be leading Trump’s transition team for the State Department, stated that the new Trump administration would seek to” …isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically, so that they ca n’t fund all of the violence …” coming from Iran’s proxies,” …all of whom destabilize Israel and our Gulf partners”. This approach contrasts with the Biden-Harris administration, who engaged the Islamic Republic diplomatically and economically, and even removed the Houthis from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist , ( SDGT ) entity list from February 2021 through January 2024. Despite this, Hook added that Iran’s new Trump administration would not be interested in “regime shift” and that people in Iran are ultimately in charge of their choices.
An Israeli assault on Iran’s nuclear sites might be approved by the Trump administration. Trump may speak for himself on this matter and will do so when he takes office, according to GAO spokesperson Elizabeth Pipko, who said that President-elect Trump should support Israel’s nuclear attacks. But, Trump had stated in October that Israel may reach Iran’s nuclear websites. In comparison, the Biden-Harris management openly opposed Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear sites or fuel fields, and Israel’s invasion plans were leaked to Iran through someone in the Biden-Harris government’s Defense office.
attempting to stop the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon
According to Pipko, President-elect Trump wants Israel to stop the war in Gaza and Lebanon quickly, quickly, and with success. Pipko contrasted this technique with the Biden-Harris government’s “back and back” plan, and that the Biden-Harris leadership was pressuring how Israel conducts warfare based on election considerations. The Biden-Harris leadership was innocent of “armchair quarterbacking” Israel’s wars in an inefficient means, including by leaking Israel’s plans to reach Lebanon, opposing the Rafah war, and opposing the killing of many arch-terrorists.
Trump has previously threatened Hamas, saying that if it does n’t free its hostages before the day of the inauguration, it will pay” a very big price,” and that he will likely prioritize the hostages ‘ release. The Biden-Harris leadership has been engaged in unlimited failed politics with Qatar, and it has not signed a prisoner deal with Hamas since November 2023.
Pursuing a Provisional Serenity with Palestinians
President-elect Donald Trump will probably re-visit his 2020 peace plan between Israel and the Palestinians, according to Brian Hook. Regarding the 2020 program, Hook stated that “much of that job is also important today”.
Expect the Trump administration to do a Palestinian state without condition, as the Biden-Harris management has done. Hook conceded that Trump’s 2020 program, which was endorsed by Israel and U. S. ‘ friends in the Gulf, “had a way to a two-state answer”. In response to the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hook also acknowledged that Israelis are now not focused on a Palestinian state but are instead focused on defending themselves from violence.
Additionally, Palestinian Authority ( PA ) President Mahmoud Abbas outright rejected the 2020 plan, and the plan also required the PA to provide security guarantees for Israel, recognize Israel, and allow Israeli citizens to remain in Judea and Samaria, all of which the PA did not agree to. These conditions will probably also be revived for a Palestinian state if the new Trump administration attempts to revive this program. The PA may assuredly reject it a second day, demonstrating once more that it is not a peace partner.
Expanding the Abraham Accords
President-elect Trump is likewise poised to grow the Abraham Accords. Trump brokered standardization deals between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Apparently, the previous Trump presidency was on the verge of expanding the Abraham Accords to Indonesia and Mauritania, but were prevented from doing so when the president’s word expired. Saudi Arabia had been attempting to appoint Pakistan to sign the Abraham Accords during the previous Trump presidency.
In comparison, the Biden-Harris management failed to add any locations to the Abraham Accords. After stifling US relations with Saudi Arabia and insisting on a Palestinian state as a necessary component of any deal, the government’s failing to secure an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal is most notable. The Biden-Harris leadership appears material with the prospect of pursuing a diplomatic US-Saudi offer that would essentially stifle Israel’s commitment to the Abraham Accords.
Since Trump’s resignation, Jared Kushner has had frequent conversations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regarding Israeli-Saudi connections. But given previous attempts, the new Trump administration had win Abraham Accords deals with Indonesia, Mauritania, Oman, and/or the great prize, Saudi Arabia.
