In his second term as president-elect, Donald Trump did have a harder time establishing control of the U.S.-Mexico border than he did when he first took office after effectively delivering a pledge to stop illegal immigration.
Under President Joe Biden, the border crisis experienced unprecedented amounts of illegal immigration, but it has since decreased tremendously in the last decades of his presidency.
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Trump “absolutely” faces a more challenging fight this time around, according to Daniel Di Martino, a legitimate refugee from Venezuela who works as a fellow at the traditional Manhattan Institute think reservoir in New York.
” Definitely, Trump does experience a greater border issue now than in 2017 by any calculate”, Di Martino wrote in a concept. More illegal immigrants enter the country each quarter, coming from a wider range of nations than when he first took office.
When Trump initially took office, he implemented several barrier elements, such as a Remain in Mexico policy and community separations, and diverted taxpayer funds for border wall structure when Mexico won’t pay for its development. As cartels backed off, the number of encounters immediately dropped to less than 20 000 per month.
But statistics eventually spiked to over 100, 000 per quarter in 2019 as the Trump plan was held up by complaints from democratic institutions. Therefore, as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, Title 42 health restrictions caused a dip in border crossings.
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Throughout most of Biden’s career, unlawful immigrants arrested by federal authorities ranged from 150, 000 to 250, 000 per month.
Last June saw a sharp decrease in illegal crossings when Biden took executive action and passed a new law allowing border crossings to be withdrawn from the country’s interior in order to receive court hearings years down the line.
According to a review of data by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, there are still less illegal immigration detention than in 2017 and when Biden became president in 2021. However, the situation presents new obstacles as a result of how the Biden administration steered refugees to travel into the land and schedule meetings at ports of entry more than provide improperly.
As Trump has promised to do by Jan. 20, returning the flights and appointments could lead to tens of thousands of additional illegal entry attempts every month.
For context, in November 2024, about 94, 000 people were encountered at the southern border. Of those 94, 000 immigrants, roughly 46, 000 were detained for illegal entry, and 48, 000 more were granted entry to the country through a Biden-era initiative through the CBP One app.
Those 48, 000 might have chosen to enter the country illegally, but because of the app, they went through a formal process set up by the Biden administration.
One reason Trump might have a harder job this time around than it did in 2017, Di Martino said, is because he will experience the impact of ending Biden’s legal channels.
” Ending legal crossings at the ports of entry would undoubtedly encourage more people to seek asylum elsewhere,” dit Di Martino. Whether that results in fewer net illegal immigrants depends on how effectively Trump can deter them from being eligible for credible fear and deportation, which will partly depend on Congress ‘ funding.
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If CBP One is eliminated, Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council in Washington, has warned that Border Patrol could experience an influx of immigrants crossing the border.
In a message sent in November 2024, Reichlin-Melnick wrote in a message that” Ending the CBP One process may encourage some migrants to try their luck crossing illegally rather than wait for months in Mexico for a chance at entering legally.”
Among Trump’s plethora of immigration plans to control the border, he intends to do away with the CBP One app, which allows , immigrants , to apply for admission through the parole process.
” I will put an end to the migrant invasion of America as president.” We will stop all migrant flights, end all illegal entries, terminate the Kamala phone app for smuggling illegals ( CBP One App ), revoke deportation immunity, suspend refugee resettlement, and return Kamala’s illegal migrants to their home countries ( also known as remigration )”, Trump wrote in a post to X on Sept. 15 during his successful campaign against Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Biden has admitted to more than half a million parolees using the CBP One app, contrary to what some claim is that parole was meant to be used on a case-by-case basis. Parolees may remain in the U. S. for two years once admitted.
Beginning in the late 2022, the Biden-Harris administration added two functions to the app. First, the CBP One app permits immigrants from four countries, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, to apply to fly on a commercial flight into the U. S. at their own expense and receive a work permit to remain for two years.
Immigrants in Mexico can make an appointment with U.S. customs officers at a land port of entry on the southern border through the second function of the app. Up to 1, 450 appointments can be scheduled daily — for a total of more than 43, 000 per month. Immigration agents who schedule appointments are overwhelmingly accepted at one of the eight immigration offices that have been used for appointments for months.
Di Martino claimed that Trump has a trick up his sleeve that he should employ to stop the hundreds of thousands of immigrants from nations other than Latin America from entering the United States every year despite removing the CBP One app’s immigration functions.
Trump can easily stop non-Latin American illegal immigration by urging Ecuador to impose visa requirements, making sure that immigrants never cross the southern border via this route, according to Di Martino.
Regardless of what Trump does, immigrants will go to the U.S. or other nations to seek assistance, according to Adam Isacson, a proponent of immigrant rights and director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America.
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” No one on either side of this debate agrees that people can access that protection by crossing the border irregularly, whether it be in the desert, over the wall, or across the river. That’s chaotic, uncontrolled, and dangerous”, Isacson wrote in a text message.
” People should be able to come to ports of entry and request protection: CBP One was far from perfect, but it was an orderly way to channel this flow of people”, said Isacson, who noted that in November, more immigrants applied to enter the U. S. through the app than by illegally entering. ” If that option disappears, it’s a 2, 000-mile border: people are still going to come, but in a far less orderly way that makes Border Patrol agents ‘ job a lot harder”.
