India’s silent yet deliberate relationship with the Taliban-led authorities in Afghanistan is reshaping South Asia’s geopolitical landscape, leaving Pakistan in a vulnerable position.
Driving the announcement
- This transition is best demonstrated by the most recent meeting between Afghan foreign minister Vikram Misri and acting foreign secretary Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. Both sides discussed business, regional security, and development assistance, marking a major departure from India’s usually hostile stance toward the Taliban.
- The Taliban’s agreement to facilitate business at the conference in Dubai centered on using Iran’s Chabahar interface. By bypassing Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ships, Afghanistan may be less dependent on Islamabad for business roads. Misri and Muttaqi even discussed restarting visa for Afghans, particularly for health care, education, and business reasons, a move that could further consolidate ties between the two nations.
- This high-level relationship is the first since the Taliban seized strength in August 2021, marking a significant change in India’s method. Over the past two decades, India has slowly re-engaged with Kabul, beginning with charitable assistance, including food, treatments, and vaccines. However, the Dubai meet signals India’s objective to enhance its role in Afghanistan, including discussions on development projects and economic participation.
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Why it matters: Pakistan’s waning influence on Taliban
- This developing partnership comes at a time when Afghanistan and Pakistan are at a growing tension. Islamabad, once a staunch ally of the Taliban, now finds itself at odds with Kabul over issues like cross-border militancy and refugee repatriation. The changing dynamics between these three players have implications for regional trade, security, and diplomacy.
- Pakistan has historically had a hold over Afghanistan thanks to its support for the Taliban, which is frequently seen as an Indian strategic counterweight. However, Islamabad and Kabul are at a turning point. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of allowing militants from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan ( TTP), which has been to blame for Pakistan’s rising attacks.
- India’s increasing engagement with Afghanistan threatens to erode Pakistan’s strategic leverage over its neighbor. As Kabul looks beyond its traditional ties, Islamabad now runs the risk of being diplomatically isolated.
- Economic implications: The decision to use Chabahar port could significantly impact Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan is a heavily dependent nation for its trade routes, but the use of Chabahar is an alternative that lessens Islamabad’s economic and strategic significance. This could further strain Pakistan’s already struggling economy, which is grappling with high inflation and a depreciating currency.
The big picture
- Regional power dynamics shift: India’s growing involvement in Afghanistan reflects a more general shift. By resolving to align itself with Kabul, New Delhi asserts that it can counterbalance China and Pakistan’s influence in South Asia.
- India’s strategic calculations: India’s outreach to the Taliban is pragmatic, driven by regional security and economic considerations. India is aware of the importance of maintaining a foothold in Afghanistan, despite not officially acknowledging the Taliban government. It has invested over$ 3 billion in development projects in Afghanistan over the last two decades, including schools, roads, and dams.
- By working with Kabul, India can safeguard its previous investments while also positioning itself as a key player in Afghanistan’s development. The action also aligns with India’s wider regional strategy, which seeks to combat Pakistan’s neighboring Belt and Road Initiative and its influence there.
Afghanistan’s balancing act
Engaging with India is a strategic move for the Taliban to demonstrate autonomy and lessen their reliance on Pakistan. Mmnister Muttaqi, the Taliban’s acting foreign advisor, said India was a” significant regional partner,” indicating Kabul’s desire to strengthen ties with New Delhi.
Afghanistan can avoid economic isolation by diversifying its partnerships while refuting claims that it is merely a puppet of Pakistan. Additionally, this strategy gives the Taliban an opportunity to entice donations and investments from other regional players, including China and Iran.
Between the lines
- India’s outreach to the Taliban highlights a pragmatic shift in its foreign policy, but it also underscores the limitations of Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. The growing proximity of Kabul and New Delhi, in Islamabad’s opinion, is a failure of its long-standing strategy of using Afghanistan as a buffer state for India.
- The Taliban’s willingness to talk with India reflects its desire to reduce its dependence on Pakistan while looking for new trade and development opportunities. This realignment, however, does not come without risks. India risks undermining its reputation as a democracy and a champion of human rights by engaging with a regime that has been accused of human rights abuses.
- For Pakistan, the stakes are even higher. The country’s declining influence in Afghanistan not only deteriorates its strategic position, but it also makes its efforts to address domestic security issues more difficult. Pakistan’s growing distaste for the region may force Islamabad to reevaluate its strategy toward both Afghanistan and India.
What’s next
Analysts like Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former UN ambassador, stress that Pakistan must prioritize trust-building with Afghanistan to repair strained ties and regain lost influence. However, Islamabad’s frequent border closures, airstrikes, and repatriation of Afghan refugees have created resentment, pushing the Taliban to seek alternatives.
India’s evolving role: India is likely to deepen its engagement with Afghanistan through development projects, trade, and humanitarian aid. However, this involvement will remain cautious, as India balances its interests with concerns about the Taliban’s human rights record and its potential to harbor anti-India elements.
The resumption of visas for Afghans, particularly for medical and educational purposes, could be a key step in strengthening people-to-people ties. This move could also enhance India’s soft power in the region, providing it with leverage in future diplomatic engagements.
( With inputs from agencies )
