President Donald Trump said to the masses in Milwaukee,” I’m never supposed to be here,” when he accepted the Republican nomination for the White House for the next day. It was a column he repeated often in the months following the effort on his career in Butler, Pennsylvania, which happened just days before the GOP agreement.
The challenges that Trump faced in his quest for the presidency included more than just two assassination attempt, when jarring as those words are to read. He was indicted many times across multiple states, convicted on 34 criminal matters in his native New York, and subject to an FBI raid at his house in Mar-a-Lago. He was subject to civil litigation that resulted in a$ 454 million judgment against him for his vast empire. He had to file an appeal to the Supreme Court, which also determined the level of his resistance from criminal prosecution. The Supreme Court also upheld his request to to remove his name from condition ballots.
Although almost all of the above issues he dealt with while he was in office aided his unusual return, the social studies that once made him appear destined to join the ranks of one-term presidents are much worse than these things. Then, Joe Biden, Trump’s son and presently father, may look on that uncertain one-termer list instead. ” All political life, unless they are cut off in downstream at a happy moment, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of individual politics”, Enoch Powell when observed.
When the pandemic, a recession brought on by lockdowns as much as the virus itself, and his own incompetences cost him a second term, Trump appeared to be living up to that rule. He placed blame for his political woes elsewhere, leading to his resignation as president on January 6 and an unprecedented second impeachment. However, he now has a second chance, an opportunity to create a different version of the incredible tale of his political life. Will he accept it?
WHAT TRUMP DID IN THE OVAL OFFICE ON DAY 1
This time around, Trump appears more self-assured. Calmer, quieter. This is different from 2017, when Democrats were shocked by his unexpected victory but also openly doubtful of its legitimacy. Whatever his political opponents ‘ personal opinions of him are, even his own respect the accomplishment of his triumphant White House return. Business leaders dine with Trump at Mar-a-Lago and donate money to his inaugural committees. Even though they may not be on the Taylor Swift or Beyonce level, they were not in a position to play him.  ,
The 2024 Trump campaign was his most disciplined. His transition team made deliberate moves to fill Trump administration positions, a marked change from eight years ago. The leaking, self-destructive feuding, and overall drama have been markedly less this time around. Much credit goes to Susie Wiles, the first White House chief of staff of the second Trump term, who, dating back to the campaign, stayed in the background and kept things rolling.  ,
The Senate confirmation hearings of Trump’s Cabinet picks have a different vibe to them. Not all of those nominees were Republicans chosen by the typical GOP senator, who would have been the candidate of choice. A couple of them, until quite recently, were not Republicans at all. However, even the less-conventional choices are skilled communicators whose TV skills make them suitable for televised hearings. None of them feared defending Trump or themselves.
Pam Bondi, Trump’s nominee for attorney general, told Democratic senators she would not be “bullied” by them. Were the party labels reversed, surely this would have been the stuff of” Nevertheless, she persisted” lore. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s once-embattled selection for secretary of defense, stared down what often felt like performative attacks from Democratic interlocutors.
To be fair, some of this is because few of these nominees rely on Democrats ‘ persuasion to some degree. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA ), at one point, seemed incredulous that Bondi was not behaving as if she needed his vote. However, no one is mistaken to believe Padilla’s vote is actually important. Aside from rare exceptions such as Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA ) or the tender moment between Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL ) and Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio, the name of the game is keeping Senate Republicans together. After some early hiccups, so far, so good, though the most difficult test cases have yet to emerge.
Trump’s threat to the Democratic electoral coalition is unquestionable. He won Hispanic men and significantly flipped border counties with Latinos. One in five black men voted for Trump for the second time in a row. White voters from the working-class have regressed to the point where even the Teamsters leadership has to pay attention. This is no longer the Republican Party of George W. Bush, and while that has repelled some people, arguably including the Bushes themselves, who can be awfully helpful in lower-turnout elections, it has paid some political dividends, too. Republicans have won the House’s national popular vote in the previous two elections, despite the empty majority that came with it. For the first time in 20 years, they have done it at the presidency, which is only their third time since Ronald Reagan walloped Walter Mondale over 40 years ago.
Trump is in an unusual position. He is a second-term president with first-term energy. He has had the opportunity to go there before and have four years to consider what he wants to accomplish. Many of his team’s members are in the same position. However, they haven’t all worked the hours the White House typically demands over the past four years, and they have all been sluggish. Trump has recently received a new amount of political capital, and he will be returning to the Oval Office.  ,
The Biden administration was suffocated by the lethargy that typically occurs during the second term before the end of its first. Biden himself dropped out of contention for president last year and steadily retreated from the public eye. Prior to his inauguration, Trump was eager to fill the vacuum he had created when he was elected. In ways that were previously unthinkable, Team Trump was able to launch in ways that were unthinkable.
The ideal combination might be this almost unheard of arrangement. But it is not without pitfalls. This is Trump’s second term, and the Constitution does not allow him another. Removing the 22nd Amendment would necessitate a level of bipartisan consensus that even a prosperous Trump 2.0 would almost certainly not be able to achieve. Members of both parties will soon consider appointing him as their successor. Democrats are hoping to win control of at least one house of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections, which are only two years away.
Democrats could make other, less common political gains from these circumstances. Trump would prefer to be a deal-maker over a conservative ideologue, according to history. His flexibility was highlighted in the H-1B visa debate late last year even in comparison to MAGA populists. Democrats might work with him in some areas, if necessary.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY ) has a relationship with Trump that dates back to his first term. There have been moments when it seemed that Schumer might extend, or receive, the olive branch. During the campaign of 2024, Trump and Schumer yacked it up at the Al Smith Dinner. Some Democrats are currently ready to give up their anti-Resistance beliefs.
However, the political incentives may be too similar to Trump’s first term for any bipartisanship to emerge. Despite the early” Chuck and Nancy” gatherings at the White House, Trump’s relationship with then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA ) was too poor to maintain trust. It quickly moved on to the first impeachment and attempted to unseat Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Then came the pandemic.
Trump is still Trump. He picks fights, and posts things on social media, that are entirely unnecessary. What can be gained from another broadside against” Bird Brain Nikki Haley,” who bragged about supporting Trump in public last year and who doesn’t require associates to apply for administrative positions? ( Unlike 2017, it is improbable that Trump’s personnel screeners are unaware of his preferences. )
Trump’s victory might signal the start of a steady rightward trend similar to the Reagan-Bush era of the 1980s. The repercussions of California’s left-wing mismanagement point out that this possibility might not be limited to Trump. The resultant atmosphere and a successful administration could appoint Vice President J. D. Vance, who is only 40, to succeed him. And Vance, unlike George H. W. Bush, is squarely in the tradition of the man who put him on the ticket.
Or else Trump’s presidency will make everyone miserable in two or fewer years. A part of Trump’s revival was that voters remembered there were things they liked about his first four years in office: a secure border, the end of the Islamic State, low unemployment that came with low prices, and no wars in Gaza or Ukraine. They began to understand the pandemic as a fact that was not entirely under Trump’s control, and as a result of heeding Anthony Fauci’s advice at least as much as defying him, which most of his rivals, aside from Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL ) would have done. While he was sitting at the Resolute desk, Trump’s 2024 retrospective approval ratings were higher than his poll numbers.
There were plenty of things voters didn’t like, however. The first Trump term was an ever-spinning carousel. After a certain point, the ride made many suburbanites sick, and by 2018, they wanted to get off. The country remains deeply polarized, and Trump cannot afford much slippage in his support. Kamala Harris, who replaced Biden, still managed to receive 48.4 % of the vote. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA ) majority is smaller than ever.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has frequently stated that there is a big and a small Trump. The “big Trump” is a historical figure who discusses historical concepts. The lone Trump gets involved at a personality level, he said in 2016.
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For almost a decade, Trump’s political opponents have responded to his presence on the national stage with a variant of his comments at last year’s GOP convention:” He’s not supposed to be here”. Their impeachments, lawsuits, criminal prosecutions, and imputations of fascistic intent all screamed that point, as did a thousand cable news panels. It was the one message that brought the various Democratic coalition members together last year.
But it wasn’t enough. The voters thought otherwise. Trump is here, yet again. Few former presidents have a second chance, compared to this one. Make the most of it, for him.
W. James Antle III is executive editor of the , Washington Examiner , magazine.
