This article was reprinted with permission after being published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
For decades, thousands of North Korean military have been fighting alongside Russian troops trying to take Russian forces out of Russian country while storming trenches, avoiding artillery fire, and fighting alongside them.
When they first appeared next drop, the North Korean deployment worried American officials,  , who feared they would clobber Russian troops, already-beleaguered abroad the 1, 100-kilometer forward line, and push a retreat.
That didn’t materialize. Additionally, North Korean forces are reportedly being pulled up from the front lines right now. The reason,  , according to a New York Times statement on January 31, appears to be great deaths.
Ukraine officials had mixed analyses of the Times statement: One military intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told , Current Time , that North Korean soldiers indeed had been rotated out, according to “big loss” but characterized their movements as” regular operations”.
Ukraine’s special operation command, but,  , told RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service , that North Korean soldiers had not been observed in places where special forces were fighting for about three months:” Probably having suffered significant costs, they were forced to retreat”.
If a North Korean withdrawal is confirmed, it could lead to terrible setbacks for Russian commanders, as well as a blast to the notion that North Korean troops could make a significant difference on the battlefield.
How’s what we know so much.
From Pyongyang To Kursk
After months of Ukrainian instructions, bolstered by satellite images and various open-source knowledge, North Korean soldiers started appearing in Russian areas bordering Ukraine in mid-October. More than 11, 000 in all, officials said at the time.
It wasn’t entirely clear at the time why Russian officials turned to Pyongyang for assistance, and some experts suggested that President Vladimir Putin was attempting to avoid calling a new mobilization or sending conscripts into battle, something that might stoke opposition inside Russia.
Western officials portrayed it as a sign of desperation.  , Western estimates put Russia’s casualties , since the start of the all-out invasion in February 2022 at , more than 700, 000 killed or wounded.
” This is an indication that he may be in even more trouble than most people realize” , , then-U. S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in October, referring to Putin. He “went tin-cupping” to North Korea to obtain additional weapons and materials.
Ukrainian officials predicted that they would land in Kursk, a border region where Ukraine had surprised Russia by invading the country two months prior.
Have They Made A Difference On The Battlefield?
When Ukraine punched across the border in August 2024, its forces — some of which included Kyiv’s most experienced, battle-hardened units — quickly seized a sizable amount of territory in Kursk: about 1, 300 square kilometers at its maximum.
Since World War II, a foreign military has invaded Russian territory more frequently than it has in the past.
Russia’s defense was initially shambolic, and disorganized – which prompted surprise and outrage, particularly among local residents. However, commanders redeployed units and slowly pulled Ukrainian troops back. Ukrainian officials reported the first clashes with North Korean soldiers in early November, and they were sent out in October.
To date, the combined forces of Russia and North Korea have retaken less than half of the Kursk-occupied territory by Ukrainian forces.
In order to reverse North Korean gains, Ukrainian commanders ordered a new offensive in the Kursk region a few days after the New Year.
Although some experts speculated that the reasoning might have been to expand and compete for position in anticipation of potential peace negotiations, which U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing for, was uncertain.
It was during that exercise that it appeared that Ukrainian troops had taken several North Koreans.
” They operate according to Soviet tactics, they operate in platoons, companies. They take advantage of their mass presence”, Ukraine’s top military officer, General Oleksandr Syrskiy,  , said in an interview last month. ” They are quite brave, of course, this is a problem”.
So How Bad Are North Korean Casualties?
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy estimated the casualties to be greater than 3, 000 in late December on the account of Ukrainian officials, who claim to have caused significant casualties to North Korean troops.
Although little of the contents of the items North Korean troops captured have been made public, military intelligence has since released images of them, including books, pamphlets, and even cell phones.
In his interview, Syrskiy estimated about half of the 11, 000-12, 000 deployed troops had been killed or wounded.
However, it has been impossible to verify the estimates from Ukraine.
Days before Zelenskiy gave his estimate,  , South Korea’s main intelligence service , said around 1, 100 North Koreans had been killed or wounded. More than 1, 000 people were killed or injured in this particular fighting in just the past week, according to the White House’s estimate on December 27.
South Korean intelligence , gave an updated tally on January 13: 200 North Koreans killed, 2, 700 wounded.
Pulling North Korean troops back from fierce fighting could be a sign of how successful Ukrainian attacks have been, especially if they place a premium on killing Pyongyang’s soldiers.
But troop rotations are also normal in any battlefield: Exhausted soldiers need rest, units with high casualties need to be replenished or reorganized, ammunition and shells need to be stockpiled.
