A meteorite nearly the size of a football field scurried softly past Earth on Christmas Day 2024, coming within half the Moon’s bounds. Only two days later, astronomers peering through a Chilean camera noticed anything disconcerting: this place rock, now designated 2024 YR4, does not miss us next time.
Since then, its direction has set off a burst of equations, medical attention, and, in some corners, philosophical stress. There is currently a 1.6 % chance that this asteroid and Earth will collide on December 22, 2032, according to Nasa and the European Space Agency ( ESA ). While the possibilities remain lower, they are large enough to throw 2024 YR4 at the top of ESA’s meteor danger list, and to urge nations—including China—to begin preparing for the worst-case situation.
What had a hit resemble?
If 2024 YR4 were to strike, it would not trigger a global crisis, but the effects would be devastating at a local level. Experts categorize this type of meteor as a” city-killer”. Energy equal to eight megatons of TNT could be released from the explosion caused by its effect or ambient detonation, which would be roughly 500 times the Hiroshima bomb’s power.
Traditional similarities are chilling. In the Tunguska Event, an asteroid or comet piece measuring 30 to 50 feet detonated over Siberia in 1908. An area larger than Tokyo was leveled by the explosion, which killed 80 million plants. If a comparable explosion occurred over a big city now, the consequences would be fatal.
The object’s projected effect area, if it struck, spans large and densely populated areas, including the eastern Pacific, South America, Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and parts of South Asia. Even an oceanic impact could be dangerous, causing tsunamis and extensive coastal damage.
China steps up planetary defense
A planetary defense team has begun building up in China, according to a report from the South China Morning Post. Three positions are listed in a recruitment notice from the nation’s State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense that are focused on asteroid monitoring and early warning research.
According to Li Mingtao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Science’s National Space Science Center, “in the future, we must not only comprehensively strengthen equipment configuration and performance but also cultivate a team of talent dedicated to asteroid defense.”
For its first planetary defense mission, the Chinese government has already unveiled a conceptual plan. The mission’s early 2030s plan included the deployment of a spacecraft to track down and then change the trajectory of a threatening asteroid. This was akin to Nasa’s 2022 DART mission’s deliberate collision with an asteroid to change its course, according to the SCMP report.
A matter of time and observation
Despite the flurry of activity, many scientists remain calm. The impact probability may decrease as a result of more observations, as predicted by history, just as it did with the asteroid Apophis, who was once thought to be a real threat to Earth in 2029.
” We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss”, said Paul Chodas, director of Nasa’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. ” But it deserves attention”.
For now, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, making its next close approach in 2028. The most advanced telescopes in the world will continue to monitor it and update risk assessments in real-time. Meanwhile, China, the U. S., and the broader international community must grapple with a bigger question: If a major asteroid impact is ever truly imminent, will the world be ready?
( With inputs from agencies )
