Humanitarian and advancement programs around the world have already been impacted by US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend USAID money. Experts warn that the walk is not only affecting aid-dependent areas but furthermore weakening Washington’s global control, allowing China to develop its appearance.
The immediate 90-day expulsion of USAID, which accounts for 40 per cent of global foreign aid, has resulted in stalled growth tasks, halted charitable supplies, and warnings of worsening problems in famine-affected areas. Employees are now locked out of offices and lifesaving services are being hampered by the freeze.
Trump’s plan involves merging USAID into the state department, shrinking its workforce, and directing its spending toward his political priorities. However, analysts argue that this shift is counterproductive to a major US foreign policy goal—containing China’s global influence.
The US is providing China with the perfect opportunity to grow its influence, at a time when the country’s economy is struggling, according to Professor Huang Yanzhong of the council on foreign relations, who was quoted by the Guardian as saying. He added that Trump’s decision allows China to improve its reputation internationally and reinvest in projects involving soft power.
” What Trump is doing is basically providing China a perfect opportunity to rethink, to renew soft power projects, and get back on track to transglobal leadership”.
China intervenes as the US reverses.
China has already begun to fill the vacuum created by the USAID freeze. In Cambodia, mine-clearing operations were suspended due to a lack of US funding—until China stepped in with financial support. The prime minister made plans to travel to Beijing to sign a cooperation agreement in the Cook Islands, which is typically associated with the US and New Zealand.
Successive US administrations have attempted for decades to combat China’s growing influence in the global south. However, as seen in Cambodia and the Cook Islands, the suspension of US aid has undermined one of Washington’s most powerful means of maintaining influence.
Former USAID official Michael Schiffer, who served under President Joe Biden, warned that China could use this opportunity to strengthen its alliances in crucial areas. ” We’ll be sitting on the sidelines, and then in a couple of years we’ll have a conversation about how we’re shocked that the PRC ( People’s Republic of China ) has positioned itself as the partner of choice in Latin America, Africa, and Asia”, he said while talking to news agency Associated Press.
Soft power and the US-China competition
Through the China International Development Cooperation Agency ( China Aid ), China has expanded its efforts for foreign aid since 2018. Instead of using traditional humanitarian aid, China’s model emphasizes loans and infrastructure investments through its Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ).
Historically, US foreign aid has been a critical part of its global strategy. In 1961, former US President John F. Kennedy established USAID to combat Soviet influence by promoting economic growth in troubled areas. Some analysts now argue that, without USAID’s involvement, China will fill the gap left by Washington, much like the Soviet Union once sought to do.
China does not disclose its foreign aid budget, but a study by William &, Mary’s Global Research Institute found that between 2000 and 2021, China provided$ 1.34 trillion in loans to developing nations, primarily through the BRI. While the United States remains the world’s largest donor—giving$ 64 billion in aid in 2023—the sudden suspension of USAID has raised concerns about Washington’s long-term reliability as a partner.
According to Samantha Custer, director of policy analysis at AidData, China should not even increase its aid efforts in order to profit from the situation. China” can win the day by doing nothing,” he says. You can’t work with someone who isn’t present, she was told by the news agency AP.
The impact of the US in developing aid is uncertain in the future.
Experts claim that China’s approach to foreign aid is still stronger than the US model, despite its emphasis on infrastructure projects rather than governance or human rights. Yanzhong Huang remarked that China prioritizes projects that support its domestic industries, such as building hospitals rather than providing medical training.
The impact on fragile states and conflict zones is another source of concern. While speaking to AP, Rebecca Wolfe, a development and political violence expert at the University of Chicago, noted that without USAID support, governance gaps could be exploited by extremist groups, as seen in Syria. ” Yes, the Chinese can come in and do the infrastructure. What about the governance component, though? she asked.
The freeze on USAID funding has also raised questions about the future of conflict-related assistance. In many unstable regions, USAID plays a key role in providing support that goes beyond infrastructure—such as improving governance and stabilizing communities. Without this involvement, some fear that security risks could grow.
Aid organizations claim that the effects of the aid freeze are already being felt despite the Trump administration’s description of the freeze as a temporary review. While South Sudan’s efforts to aid in flood relief are currently hampered by immediate funding constraints, schools in Uganda have shut down.
A shift in US strategy?
According to some analysts, Trump’s action is a sign that the US has changed its approach to global affairs, shifting away from soft power tactics like foreign aid and shifting to economic and military pressure.
Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, the University of Bonn’s managing director, claimed that Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy favors “hard power” strategies like military threats and economic sanctions over traditional diplomatic methods.
However, Ohnesorge also noted that Trump’s leadership has inspired similar political shifts in other countries. For instance, Argentina’s libertarian president, Javier Milei, quickly followed Trump’s lead in withdrawing from the World Health Organization. In a divided world, he claimed, Trump embodies a new, post-liberal form of soft power.
According to Ohnesorge,” Perhaps it may be better to even mention US soft powers—in the plural ] because there are very different viewpoints of America and the world that are prevalent in the US today,” Ohnesorge was quoted as saying by AP news agency.
