On February 24, US President Donald Trump met with French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House. Smiling confidently, he said: “My whole life is deals.” His approach to America’s role in the world is shifting away from alliances, treaties, and ideology. Instead, it now focuses more on transactions, power, and control.
Driving the news
Trump is redefining US foreign policy with a ruthless, deal-making approach reminiscent of a “mafia don”. His strategy is simple: every problem has a transactional solution.
- His past statements provide a window into this philosophy:
- Take Palestinians out of Gaza—problem solved.
- Let Putin keep Ukrainian land—war over.
- Buy Greenland, Canada, or Panama—because why not?
- Slash the defense budget—America should profit, not protect.
This shift away from the post-1945 order was on full display this week at the United Nations, where America broke ranks with its traditional European allies and voted alongside Russia and North Korea. Meanwhile, Trump’s emissaries are flying between capitals, peddling what can only be described as protection-racket diplomacy: security and favors in exchange for lucrative deals.
Nato leaders, already anxious about Trump’s potential return, fear the collapse of the alliance. As per a report in the Economist, Germany’s likely new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, warns Nato could be dead by June.
The mafia-like presidency
The comparison between Trump and a mafia don is more than rhetorical flourish. The administration operates under a strict hierarchy where loyalty is rewarded, dissent is punished, and personal allegiance to the boss outweighs institutional loyalty. His inner circle, including figures like Scott Bessent, serve not just as advisers but as enforcers of his world order—a world where the only rule is that America must come out on top.
It was a scene right out of “The Godfather”: “Bessent pushed the paper across the table, demanding that Zelensky sign it …. Zelensky took a quick look and said he would discuss it with his team. Bessent then pushed the paper closer to Zelensky. ‘You really need to sign this,’ the Treasury secretary said. Zelensky said he was told ‘people back in Washington’ would be very upset if he didn’t. The Ukrainian leader said he took the document but didn’t commit to signing.”
Thomas L Friedman in an NYT opinion piece ‘The Disturbing Question at the Heart of the Trump-Zelensky Drama’
The Don Corleone approach to governance extends to foreign relations, where international allies are now viewed as vassal states. “America First” has become less about national interest and more about tribute—forcing allies to pay up or be abandoned. Nato allies, for instance, are given ultimatums: meet Trump’s financial demands or find yourself at the mercy of adversaries. “Why should we defend them for free?” the president has repeatedly asked. The logic is simple: if America is the global mafia boss, then protection is a service, not an obligation.
Or are we being led by a Mafia godfather, looking to carve up territory with Russia the way the heads of crime families operate? “I’ll take Greenland, and you can take Crimea. I’ll take Panama, and you can have the oil in the Arctic. And we’ll split the rare earths of Ukraine. It’s only fair.”
Thomas L Friedman in the NYT opinion piece ‘The Disturbing Question at the Heart of the Trump-Zelensky Drama’
Deals vs dictatorship: Trump and Putin
Trump’s transactional style stands in sharp relief against Putin’s more traditional strongman tactics. Putin rules by force and fear – invading neighbors, assassinating opponents, propping up despots by brute force. His contempt for the post-1945 order is expressed in tanks and poisonings.
In Moscow, power operates differently. The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash last year—widely seen as a Kremlin-orchestrated hit, with US intelligence agencies dismissing coincidence underscored Russia’s evolution into a mafia state. Putin’s regime thrives on violence: opposition leaders like Alexei Navalny die in prison, while “traitors” like Prigozhin meet spectacular ends.
The mafia overtones in these expressions of raw power are no accident. Their purpose is to intimidate, showing that the Russian state will stop at nothing to secure itself. They are central to the regime. Putin’s Russia does not have the European élan and diplomatic acumen of the Russian Empire. It does not have the revolutionary appeal of the Soviet Union. Its economy is top-heavy with state-owned enterprises and resists innovation, and its foreign policy has needlessly isolated Russia from the West. What Putin excels at is generating wealth for the state and converting this wealth into coercive force.
An article in the WSJ titled ‘The Godfather in the Kremlin’
Trump, by contrast, eschewed starting new wars or outright annexations; his tools are tariffs, threats to walk away, and personal deal-making. In essence, Putin is willing to break legs, while Trump prefers to bend arms.
Trump’s strategy is not to eliminate enemies, but to delegitimize them, ensuring that any opposition—whether from the press, political opponents, or even former allies—is dismissed as weak, corrupt, or, in his preferred term, “losers.”
Why it matters
Trump’s Godfather-style diplomacy threatens to dismantle the global order the US has led since World War II. He believes international alliances and rules have weakened America, favoring raw economic and military power instead.
Unlike Vladimir Putin, who uses assassinations and poisonings to eliminate opponents, Trump wields threats and financial leverage to assert dominance. His foreign policy is guided by a belief that everything is negotiable—territory, alliances, military support, even the fundamental principles of democracy.
But this approach carries risks. It destabilizes US alliances, reduces American influence, and emboldens autocratic leaders like Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, who view Trump’s unpredictable nature as an opportunity rather than a deterrent.
The big picture
Trump sees foreign policy as a series of deals, where loyalty is bought and sold. His worldview disrupts decades of strategic alliances, replacing them with power plays where only the strongest survive. Some key examples:
- Ukraine: Pay up or get out: Trump has repeatedly suggested Ukraine should pay for US support. Initially, he demanded $500 billion in return for military aid but settled for a vague deal giving the US access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hesitated, Trump’s team gave him an ultimatum—sign the agreement within an hour or risk losing US backing. Trump’s approach prioritizes short-term gains over long-term stability. While he’s willing to pressure Ukraine into economic concessions, he has made major concessions to Putin without receiving anything in return.
- Nato: A protection racket? At a rally in South Carolina, Trump claimed he told the leader of an unnamed Nato country that if they didn’t meet their defense spending obligations, he would “encourage” Russia to do “whatever the hell they want”.
- The remarks sent shockwaves through Europe, with Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warning that Trump’s threats put “US and European soldiers at increased risk”. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Trump’s comments “appalling”.
- The irony? Trump portrays himself as a master negotiator, but his rhetoric weakens America’s bargaining position. By threatening Nato, he signals to Russia that the US is no longer committed to defending Europe, making future conflicts more likely, not less.
- Middle East: The art of expulsion? Trump’s transactional thinking extends to the Israel-Gaza war. His floated solution? Remove Palestinians from Gaza altogether. The idea, while shocking, fits his broader philosophy—if a problem is too complicated, eliminate the people causing it.
- China: The ultimate trade deal? Trump’s view of China mirrors his approach to Nato—he sees relationships as purely transactional. If China limits exports or helps curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, Trump may be willing to grant concessions on Taiwan, the South China Sea, or other strategic areas.
- His philosophy ignores a fundamental reality: America’s influence comes from its ability to uphold global norms, not just from economic muscle. If Trump undermines Taiwan’s security, for example, China could take that as a green light for aggression, with long-term consequences for US leadership in Asia.
The end of the rules-based order
The implications of this transactional approach are profound. The post-1945 order, built on rules and alliances, is unraveling. Trump views global institutions like Nato and the UN as scams designed to swindle America out of its wealth and power. His disdain for long-term strategy and preference for immediate gains means that the world is fast becoming a place where the biggest players dictate terms to the weak, the Economist report said.
Territory is once again up for grabs. Trump’s interest in buying Greenland may have sounded like a joke, but it was emblematic of his belief that the map can still be redrawn through sheer willpower and financial muscle. In Trump’s world, sovereignty, security, and stability are commodities, to be negotiated and traded like real estate.
Yet, as much as Trump portrays himself as the ultimate dealmaker, his approach contains an inherent contradiction: by dismantling alliances and traditional partnerships, he is diminishing America’s leverage rather than increasing it.
This new system has a new hierarchy. America is number one. Next are countries with resources to sell, threats to make and leaders unconstrained by democracy. Vladimir Putin wants to restore Russia as a great imperial power. Muhammad bin Salman wants to modernise the Middle East and fend off Iran. Xi Jinping is both a committed communist and a nationalist who wants a world fit for a strong China. In the third rank are America’s allies, their dependence and loyalty seen as weaknesses to exploit.
An article in the Economist titled ‘Donald Trump has begun a mafia-like struggle for global power’
The house always wins?
The fundamental flaw in Trump’s thinking is that he assumes America will always hold the best hand. But in a world where diplomacy is reduced to a high-stakes poker game, there will come a moment when another player—be it China, Russia, or even a resurgent European bloc—calls his bluff.
For now, Trump is relishing his role as the godfather of the international order, making offers and thinking that countries cannot refuse. But, as history has shown, even the most powerful dons eventually face their reckoning. The question is not whether Trump’s America can continue playing the game, but whether the house rules he is rewriting will one day turn against him.
What’s next
- Nato could collapse: If Trump continues undermining the alliance, European nations may seek security agreements elsewhere, reducing US influence.
- Ukraine may be forced into a bad deal. Trump’s push to end the war quickly will likely favor Russian interests.
- China may test US resolve. A transactional approach to Taiwan could embolden Beijing, increasing the risk of conflict.
- Middle East instability may deepen. Trump’s disregard for Palestinian rights could fuel further unrest, making long-term peace harder to achieve.
(With inputs from agencies)
