PARIS: According to analysts, Europe played a significant role in the 2015 agreement that caused Iran to impose a ban on advancement of its nuclear weapons, but as the United States launches fresh efforts to halt Tehran’s enrichment, it has since become a passive observer.
UN nuclear guardian main Rafael Grossi warned on Wednesday that Iran was” no way” from having a nuclear bomb, which raises the concern in western capital once more.
The subject may be discussed in the Paris talks between European leaders and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday. On Saturday, the next round of new US-Iran negotiations, which Oman mediated, will take place in Rome.
Iran has denied wanting a weapon, but Israel and the US have increased their vigilance in response to US and Israeli military actions.
The 2015 agreement that US President Donald Trump killed off when he withdrew from it in 2018 was backed by Britain, France, and Germany. They will hardly ever get involved this time. All they can do right now is support the political efforts that are being made, despite holding four round discussions between October and February.
It’s unfortunate that the Europeans, who started this political operation 22 years back and were playing a major part in it, did but poorly, said Ali Vaez, the head of the Iran project of the Crisis Group think tank.
He continued,” The German pair have been sidelined because neither Iran nor the US think they have a lot of cards or have significant added price.”
The Jean-Jaures Foundation’s David Khalfa said,” The Europeans seem double clingy, on the one hand because they are confined to the position of commentators” and excluded from the current negotiations.
On the other hand, he continued, “because they cannot afford to bomb the chances of a fresh deal, even if it is American-Iranian.”
Khalfa claimed that due to Trump’s “hostility” toward Europe, there was little probability they would make a comeback.
According to Thierry Coville, a researcher at the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Relations ( IRIS), Europe misjudged the stakes when Trump pulled the US out of the earlier agreement in 2018. Trump referred to it as” the worst deal ever”.
Iran and Germany, one of the five permanent UN Security Council individuals, were the parties to the 2015 agreement. In exchange for Iran easing up its uranium enhancement, it suggested lifting diplomatic and economic sanctions imposed by the UN.
Coville remarked that the Iranians, who had wanted to stay in the deal, asked the Europeans to help by allowing the financial markets to continue despite US restrictions.
However, due to threats made by US sanctions, Western companies have fled the Egyptian market. Colville argued that this has negatively impacted German trust.
The European Union members raised the possibility of reviving sanctions, a process known as” snapback,” in a letter to the UN Security Council in December taking note of Iran’s lessening cooperation with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.
However, Western diplomats acknowledge that they only have a short window of opportunity to resurrect. By mid-2025, according to authorities, the US and Israel may be prepared to take harsh measures against Iran.
According to Khalfa, Europe’s current plan is to “make the Americans understand that it is in their attention to include them at some point in the agreements.”
However, new sanctions, in Vaez ‘ opinion, would lessen Europe’s ability to influence Iran and would force Tehran to renounce its membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Vaez argued that leaving Iran’s support for the 1970 treaty, which is the foundation of international efforts to stop the spread of radioactive weapons,” will only lead to a bigger problem than to fix the existing one,”
Iran possibly thinks that” Trump has fat, so it is better to strike a deal with him that is financially viable,” Coville said.
