US President Donald Trump is weighing whether to immediately join the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran by supporting Israel to destroy the strongly fortified Fordo nuclear enrichment site, an action that could scuttle radioactive talks, stoke a local war, or forcefully reset Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has reaffirmed that a nuclear deal with Iran is also “attainable,” but he also issued a warning to Tehran residents to leave, in a ominous post on Truth Social:” Somebody should immediately evacuate Tehran”!
Why is it important?
- According to an article in the NYT, Fordo, which is hidden deep beneath a pile, can only be reached by the US government’s 30, 000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which is delivered primarily by B-2 secrecy aircraft. Israel lacks either one.
- A US hit had officially plunge America into a conflict that Trump campaigned half to prevent. It would put an end to the negotiations Iran claims to be still available to, and it would put a strain on Trump’s ability to balance” America First” noninterventionism with his desire to appear strong and win over foreign policy.
- Next steps are important if President Trump is serious about politics and interested in stopping this conflict, warned Iran’s foreign secretary Abbas Araghchi. He continued,” To nose one like Netanyahu, it only takes one phone call from Washington.”
The big picture: Tehran on edgeThe Trump administration has deployed additional military assets to the region and is now debating how much further to go. Trump cut short his G7 trip in Canada and returned to Washington, saying, “As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something.”
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that Israel now has a clear advantage over Tehran and that the goal is to “define the elimination of the nuclear program, the ballistic missile manufacturing capability, and the removal of the axis of terrorism.” On Monday, Israel launched additional airstrikes against Tehran in response to the evacuation orders for around 300, 000 people before planned attacks. Citizens were seen leaving the city by Tuesday night. The Grand Bazaar and its stores were closed. Despite this, Egyptian government asserted that no official instructions had been issued and that “everything is under power.” Zoom in: The Fordo factorAs of late, Israel has not yet destroyed Fordo, Iran’s most tenacious component. According to Brett McGurk, who served under four leaders, Fordo is the” essence of this thing.” Iran’s nuclear ambitions would be severely hampered by its destruction, but merely a US explosive can accomplish it. According to military analysts, it may take several precise strikes by American B-2 bombers to carry out a planned mission. The Pentagon has previously thoroughly practiced this incident, according to the New York Times, before coming to the conclusion that it will require several bombings “down the exact hole.”
What they are saying
- Trump:” We’re looking at better than a peace, no I’m looking for a peace.” The US President claimed that he wanted” an end, a real end, not a ceasefire,” and that Iran should” completely give up.”
- Lindsey Graham (R-SC):” If politics is unsuccessful, I did need President Trump to go all in.” If that means flying with Israel, do so.
- Former Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant said,” The work has to be done by Israel, by the United States.”
- Araghchi, Iran’s ambassador, said,” If the anger stops, it is obvious that the earth will be prepared for a profit to diplomacy.”
- According to Michael Singh, director of the Washington Institute,” Iran won’t be able to compete militarily with Israel.” Therefore, it will search for additional benefits.”
- The G7 officials issued a joint statement calling for” a broader de-escalation” and reiterating that Iran can never have nuclear weapons.
- Trump was “pouring oil” on an already dangerous condition, according to China, who on Tuesday accused him of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel after he warned Tehran citizens to “immediately evacuate.”
- According to Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry,” Fanning the Flames, Pouring Oil, Making Dangers, and Increasing Pressure” will certainly help to de-escalate the situation, but it will only grow and grow.” The Chinese part urges all relevant parties, particularly those with a particular grip on Israel, to make their responsibilities, taking immediate steps to de-escalate tensions, and stop the conflict from spreading and extending.
Between the linesTrump is navigating intense political pressure-from hawkish Republicans urging action, MAGA conservatives warning against endless wars, and foreign allies demanding restraint. He appears to be calibrating a strategy that allows him to leverage military might as a threat while still preserving the illusion of diplomatic off-ramps.Tucker Carlson, once a loyal Trump surrogate, blasted any move toward direct involvement, calling the president “complicit in the act of war.” Trump snapped back: “Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”Meanwhile, populist voices like Charlie Kirk and Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene warn that deeper involvement risks alienating Trump’s grassroots support. “This will cause a massive schism in MAGA,” Kirk posted.
Trump’s potential actions
- Tehran reportedly requested from Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to press Trump to appoint Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to an immediate peace. According to two Egyptian and three local resources, Iran may show flexibility in nuclear negotiations.
- Negotiating a deal with Iran while using power to do so. Trump remarked,” They if talk, and they should discuss right away.
- Military liquidity: Keep the bunker-buster risk dead and use it as possible defense if diplomatic efforts fail. The US has the crucial cards because it is the only nation with the resources to annihilate Fordo.
- Trump has already shown he is reject Israel: he blocked Ayatollah Khamenei’s assassination demand, according to AP options.
What’s nextIf Iran halts its retaliatory missile fire and signals deeper engagement on nuclear talks, Trump may hold off. If not, he could greenlight a targeted strike on Fordo-a move that would shift the war’s momentum but escalate risks dramatically.The Iranians, according to WSJ sources, canceled planned nuclear talks with the US over the weekend but remain open to negotiations-if Washington publicly distances itself from Israeli strikes.Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, told Fox News that US forces remain “postured defensively,” but noted, “What you’re watching in real time is peace through strength and America First.”The bottom lineTrump has a stark choice: force diplomacy with the threat of war-or become the president who ordered bunker-busters into the heart of Iran. With Israel demanding more support and Tehran dangling diplomacy, the next 48 hours could decide whether Trump goes down in history as a peacemaker-or a war president.(With inputs from agencies)
