Daily collection of market analysis and research from Scott Barlow, a marketplace strategist for The Globe and Mail.
In response to new immigration restrictions and new measures, Macquarie economist David Doyle provided a new estimates for American household costs.
The change in the federal immigration policy for non-permanent people that was announced this month” suggests a significant restraint in population growth away,” according to our estimates of 400K per year from 1 million per year in 2022 and 2023. Although this may reduce need progress, the record cover figures for 2022/23 have now led to a fundamental shortfall. particularly the mortgage leases of 2025 and 2026. This may have an impact on the future property prices because it could lead to an increase in sale inventory. Our updated baseline house price outlook predicts stable to moderate price growth in 2024 ( +1 to 5 % in 2024 ), with limited affordability and a new regime. This may increase the overnight level to 3.2 %. Affordable is likely to be constrained because fixed mortgage rates now account for the majority of these anticipated cuts.
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According to Scotiabank studies, the exact changes to the temporary residency software may reduce back in house REITs that are now outperforming them.
” Mr. Pierre Poilievre’s discussion on how to relate international immigration to housing starts has been piqued our interest (others seem to have noticed this as well )” In order for a scheme to be developed along those lines to be successful, our main goal is to quantify potential require effects ( we are. ~4 % impact ). Bottom- range, new focus has been on accelerating supply growth to address affordability, probably understating upside risk to the” D “part of the equation in 2025. Apartment REITs outperformed 2023 and YTD on strong ( and accelerating ) SSNOI/FFOPU]same store net operating income/funds from operations per unit ] growth … Our key estimates and ratings are intact but our TPs]target prices ] fall 2 %- 3 % ( 0.5x lower multiple for each ) but medium- term risks seem biased higher post” return- to- school”, in our view. We do n’t think 2024 estimates are at risk … That said, we see risks = market rents falling, policy risk ( i. e., what we’re writing about, we await the Federal Budget in April ), FFOPU growth deceleration in 2025″
The experts charge American House Properties REIT and InterRent REIT” business outperform.”
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Mislav Matejka, a JP Morgan strategist, sees causes for concern regarding global equity valuations.
” The bulk of the equity performance so far this year, and indeed in the past 18 months, was driven by multiple expansion. Globally, 12m forward earnings are up only 7 % from the lows, compared to nearly 30 % in the P/E upmove. The current US forward P/E multiple is up 6 % year-to-date, up 20 % from the lows of October; however, we think that in order to support current equity valuations, there will need to be at least some earnings acceleration, as well.
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Diversion:” More than half of chickenpox diagnoses are wrong, study finds”– Ars Technica
