A recent , Gallup poll , showed Democrats ‘ guide over Republicans with dark voters “has grown by roughly 20 points over the past three years”, and their direct among Hispanics has dropped “nearly as much” . , Gallup found that 66 percent of non- Spanish dark adults identify as Democrat or trim- Democrat, while 47 percent of Hispanics do.  , Both are huge drops from , 2020 exit poll,  , which showed 87 percentage of negroes and 65 percent of Hispanics voting for Biden.
These figures, much more significant than just a drop in Biden support, indicate a significant shift in partisan loyalty in regions that have historically been largely Democratic.  , In democratic terms, their switch signals a possible realignment.
For over 70 years, America has been in what could be termed a time of dealignment.  , Starting with Eisenhower’s 1952 political triumph, America’s two events have alternated political power with stunning regularity.  , In 18 elections, only once has a party held the White House more than two terms ( Republicans winning in 1980, 1984, and 1988 ), and only twice has a party held it for only a single term ( Democrats from 1977- 1981 and Republicans from 2017- 2021 ).
Surely, these alternating national eras did not result in total federal power shifts. Democrats ‘ influence in Congress extended well beyond its pre-election lock, and there have been numerous instances where both presidential and congressional power have conflicted since 1994, when Democrats have fought Democratic supremacy.  , However, for seven decades, America has seen an extremely regular alternating of the federal government’s main power: the presidency.
However, just because this is what we have known for three generations does not imply that it is the norm in America. Instead, historically, it has been the norm for one party to hold the presidency for a while.  , In short: an alignment that gave one party clear political dominance.  , Such was the case for Democrats in the 19th , century up to the Civil War, for Republicans from the Civil War to the Depression, and then Democrats from 1932 to the mid- 1960s.
The Civil War and the Depression clearly triggered realignments. What could be today’s? The left’s growing radicalization and control of the Democrat Party are both growing.  , It would not be the first time the left has subverted Democrat dominance. It shattered the Democrat Party in 1968, allowing Republican Richard Nixon to win the presidency, and fractzed the Democrat Party in 1972, causing the conservatives of the previous New Deal coalition to lose.  ,
Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama successfully created their own coalitions from the left’s remnants of the Democrat coalition.  , Four years ago, Joe Biden did too, today, Biden’s base of support has dwindled to little more than the left itself and Democrats ‘ most partisan faithful. This is most clearly demonstrated by Biden’s low poll numbers and its deterioration of the Democratic minority base.
With his conservative populist approach, Trump is capitalizing on the radical left’s fracturing of the Democrat coalition, he did so in 2016.  , With Trump in the White House in 2020 amid the pandemic, the effectiveness of his populist versus elite strategy was blunted.  , However, while the 2024 race is once again a clear contest between the populous and the elite, Trump can capitalize on it only to a point.  , According to , RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average of national polling of a , head- to- head rematch , with Biden puts him at 45.5 percent — barely ahead of Biden ( 45.3 percent ), and even behind his , 2020 popular vote , percentage of 46.9 percent.  ,
Trump continues to be a divisive political figure. Again according to , RealClearPolitics ‘ , national average, Trump’s unfavourability rating of 53.6 percent is only slightly lower than Biden’s at 55.3 percent. Trump will not fully exploit the opportunity Republicans have to use conservative populism despite gaining from it.  ,
However, a victory for Trump might help Republicans win far more than the White House in four years. He must relinquish the populist baton because he is constitutionally prohibited from serving more than a single term. In the right hands, this might help Republicans strengthen and strengthen the party’s support for disenchanted minorities.  ,
Trump is still a political novice in many ways. He undoubtedly continues to be polarizing. But he is also a populist savant. A political realignment may be taking place that would ironically restore America’s historical norm of alignment domination of presidential politics. This may be achieved through the seemingly unthinkable rise of a political novice and the radical left’s imposed role reversal of the Democrat Party. If so, it has the potential to be both enduring and self-sustaining as realigned voters provide critical mass and cover for more of their fellow citizens to switch.  ,
J. T. Young worked in the House and Senate as a professional staffer from 1987 to 2000, held positions in the Office of Management and Budget and the Department of Treasury from 2001 to 2004, and served as the director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023.
