Paris: Chad’s election on May 6 appears to offer citizens a decision. But it’s been masterminded, analysts say, to produce a second result: to rubber- mark the rule of the former, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who is seeking to change himself from defense leader to human president.
Déby seized power three years ago after his parents, Idriss Déby, who ruled Chad with an iron fist for three years, was killed– evidently on the field, fighting rebels trying to overthrow his state. His son’s succession to the presidency was a clear violation of the country’s constitution.
Chad is a landlocked, arid country of 18 million people in Central Africa. Despite its wealth of natural resources, it is one of the world’s poorest nations.
Nevertheless, it is sheltering hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war in neighboring Sudan.
Along with other African countries that have had coups in the last four years, Chad is located in a belt that extends coast to coast.
And it’s the first of the junta- led countries to hold an election. The government of Mali keeps putting off its promised vote. Last year, Burkina Faso’s military president, Ibrahim Traore, indefinitely postponed an election planned for July 2024, saying it was” not a priority”. There is no end in sight for Guinea’s supposedly transitional government.
At a time when other nations are excluding Western allies, Chad has established itself as a trustworthy security partner for Western nations in their fight against Islamic militants. After being expelled from neighboring Niger, hundreds of French troops are staying there, as well as some American ones.
However, some American troops are departing after receiving a letter from the air force chief of Chad, according to reports from recent reports, at least until after the election.
Who is running?
Déby– known by his nickname, Kaka– was supposed to be an interim leader, and promised not to run– but he’s at the top of the ballot. He is a four-star general with extensive family history who trained in France and the Chad. He also has three wives and numerous children.
His prime minister, Succès Masra, is also a candidate. Prior to last year, Masra was the country’s most well-known opposition leader. He was still living in exile. But then he returned, made a deal with Déby and, since January, has led his government. Masra once enjoyed a lot of support, but many Chadians now view him as a sellout.
Eight other candidates have been approved to run– but two key opposition leaders, Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, were barred after the country’s constitutional council said there were “irregularities”, including forgery by Koursami. But most observers said they thought the council’s findings were politically motivated.
The other name that was left off the ballot is Yaya Dillo, who had been the main opposition figurehead. In February, he was shot dead by security forces at his party’s headquarters– an assassination, his party said. Before that, dozens of protesters were killed in pro- democracy rallies.
When will we find out the results?
About a week after the election. If it goes to a runoff, that is to be held June 22.
Who is going to win?
In Chad, there has never been a free and fair election, and this election appears to follow that trend. According to analysts, a coup d ‘état is the only way to prevent Deby from losing power.
But even if he wins the vote, do n’t make the mistake of thinking he’s popular, said Lynda Iroulo, a scholar of international relations at Georgetown University in Qatar. She claimed that the juntas in Mali, Burkinabe, and Niger enjoy significantly more popularity than those in Chad despite the apparent absence of elections.
” Most of them have had some level of mass support”, she said, largely because they are trying to” cut off the French influence in their countries”.
In each nation, thousands of people have gathered to show their support for the juntas. Not so in Chad. Nevertheless, Déby has made sure that no candidate with enough support to defeat him will participate.
” My whole life, I have n’t seen any change occurring”, said Julia Bealoum, a student in Ndjamena. ” I think things will continue as before”.
What are the geopolitical factors?
The international outcry in Chad has not been the same wave that came after the coups and the democratic backsliding in other African nations. After the coup, or when Déby reversed his decision to not run, the African Union did not suspend Chad’s membership. When Dillo– the opposition leader– was killed, the United States and France said nothing.
President Emmanuel Macron of France even sent his special envoy to Ndjamena 10 days after Dillo’s death, to offer his “admiration” for the electoral process.
It was far cry from the decease that led to the coups in Mali, Burkinabe, and Niger, or their juntas ‘ subsequent failure to hold elections.
Despite the two governments ‘ close ties, many voters in Chad believe that Western nations call the shots and are highly critical of France.
” I do n’t think it’s possible for a country like Chad to organize a transparent election, because we are ruled by Western powers, especially France, who just look after their own interests”, said Richard Djitaingar, the owner of a small cellphone shop in Ndjamena.
This article first appeared in The New York Times.
